Monthly data:2018 China Bearing Steel market trend in Mar-will become stronger

Monthly data:2018 China Bearing Steel market trend in Mar-will become stronger 

Summary: According to the data of year-on-year growth from January to December, the yields of Chinese crude bearing steel increased by 12.53%, Bearing steel increased by 7.76%. Review the bearing steel market of February, the price of GCr15 high-end materials is strong and the middle and low-end resources are rising. So far, the lowest price for casting unannealed material is 5200RMB/ton, 5800RMB/Ton and 6500RMB/Ton corresponding to Middle grade and High-grade material. In view of the current trend, it is estimated that the market price of bearing steel in March is likely to consolidate upward and rise.

1. The Domestic Yields of Bearing Steel
1.1 Yields From January to December: Crude bearing steel and bearing steel both increased comparing to last year

As the data shows from China Steel, the output of crude bearing steel reach up to 3.182 million tons from Jan to Dec, 2017, rose by 12.53% compared to 2016. The yields of bearing steel is 3.0146 million tons, which is increased by 7.76% year-on-year growth. Details refer to Pic 1:

1.2 Yields data of The finished steel From Jan to Dec: Increased year-on-year

2.Performance of China Bearing Steel Market

In February, the price of the bearing steel market continued to be strong, and most steel mills gained 100 to 200 yuan per ton. However, the market demand has not been significantly improved, the merchants accept relatively slowly in the process of price increase.Because the reduction of steel production capacity will not be reduced, the latter part of the inventory pressure is difficult to change, so bearing steel prices are expected to fall in March, but the overall decline is likely to be strong.

3.Related Market Information

3.1 Raw Material Price

In February, the price of imported minerals up to 78.85 dollars/ton. While the market price of general carbon and rust steel remained  higher to 2148RMB/ton, which was increased by 4.68% comparing with last month. The price of high carbon ferrochrome remain upward and the average price was 8137 RMB/ton at the end of this month. So it is estimated that raw material market run with relatively strong shock in March.

3.2 Downstream Industry

Statistics from China Automobile Industry Association: 
Automobile production and sales volume of January, 2018 decreased than last month, but the growth rate was lower. In January, the yields of autos reach to 2.6883 million units, the result is increased by 11.61% comparing with last year, and increased by 13.61% year-on-year . Sales volume reaches to 2.8092 million units, the result decreased by 8.20% comparing with last year, and increased by 11.59% year-on-year.

3.Conclusion

Looking back at the bearing steel market in January, because the price difference between GCr15 and 45 # carbon steel is increasing, Zhongtian, Nangang, Jianlong and other steel mills have reached up to 800-1000 yuan / ton, making end-user purchases more cautious.So it is estimated that raw material market run with relatively strong shock in March.