Monthly data:2018 China Bearing Steel market trend in Jul-will partially fell back

Summary: In January-May, the output of domestic crude steel increased by 15.27% year-on-year, and the output of bearing steel increased by 14.95%. The price of GCr15 high-end materials kept steady, and the medium and low-end materials rose slightly, and demand slowed down. Up to now, the low-cost resources for continuous casting and non-annealing materials in China are 5,100 yuan / ton; the mid-range materials are priced at 5,500 yuan / ton; the high-end materials are 6,400 yuan / ton. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will be weak in July, and some high-end materials are not allowed to run.

1. Domestic bearing steel production

1.1 1-5 months production: bearing crude steel, steel both rose year-on-year

According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, the output of crude steel for bearing steel of the main special steel enterprises in China from January to May 2018 was 1,730,300 tons, an increase of 15.27% compared with the same period of last year; the main special steel in China from January to May 2018 The company's bearing steel output was 1,160,800 tons, an increase of 14.95% compared with the same period last year. See Figure 1.

1.2 Production of finished steel products of bearing steel production enterprises from January to May: steel mill output increased year-on-year

As can be seen from Figure 2, the current bearing steel output is: CITIC Special Steel (Xinye Steel, Xingcheng Special Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel), Zhongtian and Giant Energy, accounting for 58% of the total output. The overall output of bearing steel increased in the first five months of January-May, and the output of steel mills such as Zhongte, Zhongtian, Nangang, Shagang and Sugang increased compared with the same period of last year, but Xinggang, Bent, Jianlong and Xining The output of steel mills such as Beiman has decreased slightly.

2. The domestic bearing steel market performance

With the arrival of the off-season, the demand for bearing steel is bound to be affected. Under the pressure of increasing supply and demand conflicts, the market price of bearing steel is expected to fall partially in July, but the space for decline will not be large.

3. Relevant market information

3.1 Raw material price:

In June, the price trend of imported ore was first raised and then declined. The overall price fluctuated within a narrow range. The price at the end of the month was at US$64.45 per dry ton. The price of the carbon scrap market was volatile. The average price at the end of the month was 1978 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the end of last month. The carbon ferrochrome market is strong, and the average price at the end of the month is 7680 yuan / ton. The raw material market is expected to run in a narrow range in July.

3.2 Downstream industry

According to the statistical analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in May 2018, automobile production and sales decreased slightly, and maintained growth year-on-year. From January to May, the production and sales of automobiles increased, and the growth rate increased slightly from January to April. In May, automobile production was 2,344,400 units, down 2.26% from the previous month and up 12.84% year-on-year; sales were 2,287,700 units, down 1.37% from the previous month and up 9.61% year-on-year. From January to May, the production and sales of automobiles were 11.76 million and 11.7922 million, an increase of 3.84% and 5.71% year-on-year. The growth rate was 2.06 percentage points and 0.93 percentage points higher than that in January-April.

4. Conclusion

The off-season demand for steel is approaching, and the demand for downstream steel is weakening. It is expected that the price of bearing steel will fluctuate and consolidate in July. After the relatively stable period in the first half of the month, there is no possibility of a slight decline in the latter half of the month.