Monthly Summary: Domestic Bearing Steel Market Will be oscillated weakly in October

Summary: From January to August, domestic bearing steel crude steel output decreased by 1.72% year-on-year, and bearing steel production decreased by 6.37%. Looking back at the bearing steel market in September, the price of bearing steel has declined, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Up to now, the low-cost resources for continuous casting and non-annealing materials in China are 4,300 yuan / ton; the mid-range materials are priced at 4,500 yuan / ton; the high-end materials are 5,300 yuan / ton. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will be weak in October, or the overall shock operation will be the main.

I. Domestic bearing steel production

1. The production from January to August: bearing crude steel, steel both fell

According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, the output of crude steel for bearing steel of the main special steel enterprises in China from January to August 2019 was 1.516 million tons, down 1.72% compared with the same period of last year; the main special steel in China from January to August of 2019 The company's bearing steel output was 2,261,600 tons, down 6.37% compared with the same period last year. See Figure 1.

1. The production of various production enterprises from January to August bearing steel: steel mill output decreased year-on-year

   As can be seen from Figure 2, the current bearing steel output is: CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel), Zhongtian and Giant Energy, accounting for 64% of the total output. In the first ten months of the year from January to August, the overall output of bearing steel was decreasing. The output of Jianlong, Shagang, Benxi Steel, Shigang, Xining, Jiyuan, Nangang and Qilu decreased. Beiman, Juengeng, Xinggang, Zhongzhong The output of steel mills such as Tianshou and Sugang increased slightly compared with the same period of last year.

   

   Ⅱ. Domestic bearing steel market performance review

   In September, the market price of bearing steel fell slightly, and demand was not as expected. At present, the export situation is still relatively severe, and domestic downstream manufacturing industries such as automobiles and machinery have not shown signs of recovery. From the current situation, it is expected that the price of bearing steel will be weak after the holiday.

   

   Ⅲ. Relevant market information

2. Raw material price:

   In September, the price of imported ore market fluctuated within a narrow range, and the demand for replenishment in steel mills was weak. The price at the end of the month was 91.4 US dollars per dry ton. The carbon scrap market has gradually warmed up, with an average price of 2387 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 3.11% from the end of last month. It is expected that the scrap steel market will rise in the first place in October; the high-carbon ferrochrome market will rise slightly, and the average price at the end of the month will be 6,617 yuan/ton. Demand in October is expected to remain stable or even slightly increase.

   

3. Downstream industry

   According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August 2019, the decline in automobile production was narrowed year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased year-on-year. Production and sales were 1.919 million and 1.958 million, respectively, down 0.5% and 6.9% from the same period of the previous year. From January to August, the production and sales of automobiles were 15.939 million and 16.104 million respectively. The production and sales volume decreased by 12.1% and 11% respectively compared with the same period of the previous year. The decline in production and sales was 1.4 and 0.4 percentage points lower than that in January-July. At present, although the overall decline in the overall production and sales of the automotive industry has changed, the pressure is still not effectively alleviated.

   

Ⅳ. Conclusion

Looking back at the bearing steel market in September, the overall situation is still weak and the downstream demand is less than expected. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market still exists, and it also has a certain impact on bearing steel. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will be under pressure in October, and the low- and mid-range resources may be adjusted.