Monthly data: The bearing steel market will be fluctuate in June

Monthly data: The bearing steel market will be fluctuate in June

Overview: From January to April, crude steel output of domestic bearing steel increased by 27.81 %, and bearing steel output increased by 22.08 %.  Looking back on the bearing steel market in May, the market average price showed an inverted ' V ' trend. In the second half of the year, many departments frequently responded to the problem of excessive rise in commodities, and the domestic bearing steel market prices surged and fell.  Up to now, the average price of domestic bearing steel 50 mm ( continuous casting ) is 6645 yuan / ton, up 390 yuan / ton from the end of April, an increase of 6.24 % month-on-month.  After the price surge, downstream terminal enterprises are generally difficult to accept, and the wait-and-see mood is extremely serious.  At present, the capacity release of the steel plant is not reduced, and the inventory decline is not as fast as expected. However, considering the high cost, the steel plant has a strong willingness to bid. It is expected that the market price of bearing steel will rise slightly in June.

( 1 ) Bearing steel output from January to April 2021 : crude steel and steel both increased year on year  

According to the statistics of Special Steel Association, the crude steel output of bearing steel in China ' s main excellent special steel enterprises from January to April 2021 was 15611 million tons, which increased by 27. 81 % compared with the same period last year.  From January to April 2021, the output of bearing steel in China 's major special steel enterprises reached 1.3265 million tons, an increase of 22.08 % over the same period last year, as shown in figure 1.

( 2 ) Output of finished products of bearing steel enterprises from January to April 2021 : year-on-year increase in output of steel plants  

It can be seen from Fig. 2 that the current bearing steel production is relatively large, namely, Zhongxin Special Steel ( Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Steel ), Zhongtian and Benxi Steel, accounting for 61 % of the total output.  From January to April in 2021, the overall output of bearing steel was increasing. The output of Beiman, Shagang, Nangang, Jiyuan, Xining, Xinggang, Jueng and CITIC Special Steel increased compared with the same period last year, and the output of Jianlong, Shigang and Benxi Steel decreased slightly.

2. Performance of domestic bearing steel market  

The domestic bearing steel market price showed a big fluctuation in May, and the market demand was not optimistic. From the point of view of the circulation end, due to the rapid decline of the price in the early stage, the market trading atmosphere is poor, and the orders of the bearing and forging plants are significantly decreased. At present, the market price has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and the transaction may have some increments, but June is the traditional off-season, and the later demand increment is limited. However, in view of the high cost, steel plants have a strong willingness to bid, and it is expected that the market price of bearing steel will rise slightly in the shock adjustment in June.

3. Relevant market information  

( 1 ) Raw material price :  The iron ore market moved up in May, with the Mysteel 62 per cent Australian powder index at $ 197.5 per tonne at the end of the month.  The price of imported ore in the first ten days of high steel plant profits stimulate the next way up, in the middle of the month by the name of the congress, the price of ore surge back behind the steady rebound. Looking ahead to June, global supply of iron ore is expected to increase further in late quarter impulses and high profits.  The price of common carbon scrap market has been ups and downs, and the average price at the end of the month is CNY 3032 / ton.  When the price of finished steel rises sharply, the price of scrap steel rises crazyly, reaching a new high in recent years. Under the influence of policies, the price of finished steel drops sharply.  It is expected that there may be a reasonable return after the price of scrap steel rises sharply. The market of high-carbon ferrochrome is volatile, and the price is 7461 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The reduction of bidding price of mainstream steel mills slowed down significantly in June, and the continued increase of spot price and the bid price gap opened. At present, the domestic supply problem is dominant, the demand is steadily released and the cost of many places is rising. It is expected that the short-term high carbon ferrochrome price will continue to rise slightly.

( 2 ) Downstream industries  

According to the statistics of the China Automobile Industry Association, in April 2021, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.234 million and 2.252 million, respectively. Compared with the same period in 2019, production and sales increased by 8.7 % and 13.5 %, respectively. The automobile market continued to show a steady and good development trend.  This month ' s auto exports were also outstanding, with more than 150, 000 vehicles exported that month, hitting record highs.

4. Conclusion  

In May, the price of bearing steel market showed a trend of sharp rise and fall, and the supply and demand pattern showed a weak balance. At present, the performance of downstream industries such as automobile bearings, wind power bearings and metallurgy is not satisfactory. Steel tube plants and forging plants are basically purchased on demand, and the overall demand is still subject to certain constraints. Although the spot market has rebounded recently, the market is still more cautious. Compared with the same period last year, the overall output of bearing steel this year has increased, the market resources are increasingly abundant, and the supply exceeds demand gradually. The homogenization competition in some material markets is relatively fierce. In June, the output of the steel plant will continue to maintain a high level, but considering the high cost, the steel plant has a strong willingness to bid. Prices in the bearing steel market are expected to rise slightly during the shock adjustment in June, and policy changes need to be focused later.