Monthly data: The trend of the bearing steel market will be fluctuated strongly in March

Overview: In 2021, domestic crude bearing steel production will increase by 18.95% year-on-year, and bearing steel production will increase by 18.84% year-on-year. Looking back at the bearing steel market in February, the prices of mid-to-high-end materials of GCr15 were relatively firm, the prices of low-priced resources fluctuated within a narrow range, and the demand recovery was relatively slow. Up to now, the average price of domestic bearing round steel 50mm (continuous casting) is 6555 yuan / ton, up 12 yuan / ton from the end of January, and a month-on-month increase of 1.83%. In March, with the continuous recovery of market demand and the high cost of new arrivals in the later market, it is expected that the market price of bearing steel may fluctuate slightly in March, and it is also facing supply and inventory pressure.

1. Domestic production of bearing steel

(1) Bearing steel output in 2021: crude steel and steel both increased year-on-year

According to the statistics of the Special Steel Association, in 2021, the output of bearing steel crude steel of my country's major high-quality special steel enterprises will be 4.7042 million tons, an increase of 18.95% compared with the same period last year; , an increase of 18.84% compared with the same period last year, see Figure 1 for details.

(2) The output of finished products of bearing steel production enterprises in 2021: the output of steel mills increased year-on-year

As can be seen from Figure 2, the current bearing steel production enterprises are: CITIC Special Steel (Xingcheng Special Steel, Daye Special Steel, Qingdao Iron and Steel), Zhongtian and Benxi Steel, accounting for 60% of the total output . In 2021, the overall output of bearing steel will increase. Jiyuan, Xinggang, Shigang, Beiman, Shagang, Xining, Nangang, Zhongte and other steel mills will increase their output compared with the same period last year. , Zhongtian and other steel mills output decreased. Judging from the feedback from various production enterprises at this stage, steel mills were producing normally in February, and it is expected that the supply of bearing steel may increase slightly in February.

2. Domestic bearing steel market performance

In February, the market price of bearing steel was adjusted within a narrow range, and the market demand failed to recover as scheduled. According to the survey, the orders received by steel mills in March were acceptable, and the proportion of direct supply orders was relatively high. From the perspective of the circulation end, the terminal market started less than expected, and the accumulative pressure of some bearing steel pipe factories increased. At present, various places and industries are rapidly resuming work and production. With the further release of demand, the market price of bearing steel may fluctuate slightly.

3. Relevant market information

(1) Raw material price:

In February, iron ore prices rose first and then fell, and the Mysteel 62% Australian Powder Index is now $138.2 per dry ton. With the further narrowing of the gap between supply and demand, the total inventory has a tendency to go to the warehouse. However, due to the current high inventory in the port, it is expected that there is still a lot of room for reduction in the port in March, and the port inventory fluctuates slightly; domestic scrap fluctuates upward, The average price at the end of the month was 3161 yuan/ton. With the resumption of production of electric arc furnace steel mills, the overall performance of scrap steel prices is still relatively strong. After the holiday, a large number of infrastructure projects have resumed work, the real estate policy has slowed down, and the transaction volume of construction steel has increased significantly, supporting scrap steel prices. Profit situation; the high carbon ferrochromium market continued to rise, and the price at the end of the month was 8711 yuan / ton. After the festival, downstream iron mills made more inquiries to replenish raw material inventory. In addition, the tradable spot inventory was relatively limited, and traders had a strong mentality of rising, and the focus of transactions gradually moved up.

(2) Downstream industries

According to the statistics and analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January 2022, automobile production and sales reached 2.422 million and 2.531 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% and 0.9%. In January, the overall situation of automobile production and sales was stable, and the performance of new energy vehicles was still outstanding, and continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum year-on-year.

4. Conclusion

In February, the market price of bearing steel was adjusted within a narrow range, the recovery of terminal demand after the holiday was obviously slow, and social inventory was obviously accumulated. This year, downstream funds are still tight, the start date is late, and the uncertainty of the policy side has made the market wait and see. In the later stage, the production cost of iron and steel enterprises may rise, but in view of the unsatisfactory performance of the current steel pipe factories and forging plants, there is insufficient motivation for the sharp rise in the price of bearing steel in the later stage. However, with the gradual recovery of market consumption, it is expected that the market price of bearing steel may have room for a slight increase in March.