Weekly Summary: 2023 China Bearing Steel Market Trend in Third Week of June Down Slightly

Weekly Summary: 2023 China Bearing Steel Market Trend in Third Week of June Down Slightly

Overview: This week, the national high-quality special steel prices fell slightly, and the overall market performance was weak. This week, the volatility of the futures market weakened, the spot price fell slightly, and the transaction decreased compared with last week. From the perspective of supply, the output of high-quality special steel tends to be stable; from the perspective of inventory, according to the investigation on Thursday, we learned that the current factory warehouses and social warehouses have increased slightly, which is relatively low year-on-year. From the beginning of this month, the overall feedback of the premium special steel market is weak, and the wait and see is the main focus. Details are as follows:

【Price review this week】

This week, the prices of mainstream special steel varieties fell slightly, of which 45# closed at 4087 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from last week; 40Cr closed at 4324 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from last week; 20CrMnTi closed at 4492 yuan/ton tons, down 7 yuan/ton from last week; CrMo closed at 5334 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from last week.

This week, Hangzhou, the main market for high-quality special steel in the country, closed at 4,040 yuan/ton, Shandong at 3,760 yuan/ton, and the price difference in leading cities was 280 yuan/ton.

From June 17th to June 23rd, the price adjustments of major premium and special steel mills across the country are as follows: a total of 10 steel mills released price adjustment information in this period, and a total of 10 price adjustment information were released. This week, steel mills mainly adjusted and raised prices, while some were temporarily stable. Next week, we should continue to pay attention to the impact of consumer demand and steel mill maintenance.

【Summary of major markets】

Zhejiang market: The price of Zhejiang market fluctuated and consolidated this week. The current price of 45# carbon knot round steel Huaigang is 4060 yuan/ton, and Hangzhou Iron and Steel is 4040 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week.

Jiangsu market: Jiangsu special steel prices fluctuate relatively weakly. Now 45# Huaigang is 4,040 yuan/ton, Dongfang 4,000 yuan/ton; In terms of steel mills, the total bar inventory of Jiangsu Youte Steel Plant was 445,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week, a month-on-month increase of 5.2%, a decrease of 65,600 tons from the same period last year, and a year-on-year decrease of 13%.

Shandong market: The price of Shandong special steel market fluctuates and adjusts this week. The direct price of 45# steel mills: steel investment 3770-3790 yuan/ton, Luli 3760 yuan/ton, Fulun 3780 yuan/ton, Xiwang stick 4200 Yuan/ton, Weigang 3940 yuan/ton, Juneng 3940 yuan/ton, Laiwu Steel Special Steel Laiwu market 20CrMnTi4380 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory: the inventory of Shandong Youte Steel Works was 251,000 tons, an increase of 0,500 tons, or 0.20%, from the previous month.

South China market: This week, the market price of high-quality special steel in South China dropped by 30 yuan/ton compared with last week. At present, in the Guangdong market, 45# Hunan Iron and Steel 4030/ton, Shaoxing Iron and Steel 4030 yuan/ton, Xinxing cast pipe 4,000 yuan/ton, and 40Cr Hunan Iron and Steel 4230 yuan/ton in the Guangdong market.

Central China market: This week, the market price of high-quality special steel in Central China is slightly adjusted compared with last week. The current market price of Zhengzhou 45# Jinan Steel is 4290 yuan/ton, which is 30 yuan/ton higher than last week; Changsha 45# Hunan Iron and Steel is 4060 yuan/ton, which is 10 yuan/ton lower than last week; Wuhan 45# Xianggang is 3990 yuan / ton, stable compared with last week. In terms of steel mills, this week, Jigang, a mainstream steel mill in the central China market, raised its price by 30 yuan/ton, while Hunan Iron and Steel did not move.

Northeast market: This week, the market price of premium special steel in Northeast China is basically stable compared with last Friday. The current market price in Shenyang is 3920 yuan/ton for 45# Benxi Steel (national standard), 3970 yuan/ton for Linggang, 3960 yuan/ton for Tongyuan Iron and Steel, 3970 yuan/ton for Jianlong Beiman, 4200 yuan/ton for 40Cr Linggang, 4200 yuan/ton for 20CrMnTi Benxi Steel 4930 yuan/ton, CrMo Benxi Iron and Steel 5330 yuan/ton.

North China market: This week, the market price of high-quality special steel in North China is generally stable compared with last week. At present, the market price in Tianjin is 4080 yuan/ton for 45# Linggang, 4020 yuan/ton for Benxi Iron and Steel, 4060 yuan/ton for Jianlong, and 3850 yuan/ton for Tiangang (the market price of Rongcheng Steel Plant is 4080 yuan/ton).

This week, the market price of high-quality steel in Handan fell slightly. At present, 45# Shagang Plant will deliver 3,870 yuan/ton to 3,920 yuan/ton; Xinxing cast pipe warehouse will deliver 3,870 yuan/ton to 3,910 yuan/ton; Changgang will directly send 3,760 yuan/ton/warehouse to 3,830 yuan/ton .

【Inventory Performance】

As of June 22, the total inventory of national high-quality special steel bar samples was 2.025 million tons, an increase of 47,000 tons or 2.38% over the same period last week. The month-on-month decrease was 79,800 tons, and the year-on-year decrease was 416,300 tons.

【Supply side】

In terms of supply, our statistics on the production survey data of national excellent special steel factories show that in May, the national output of excellent special steel bars (34 samples) was 3.11 million tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous month, and an increase of 42,000 tons from the same period last year; The output was 3.197 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 87,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 88,000 tons; in May, the national output of high-quality special steel bars (46 samples) was 3.813 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 65,000 tons; June is expected to The output was 3.931 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 118,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 154,000 tons.

【Demand side】

This week, the transactions in the national high-quality special steel market were weak. This week, as the snail futures fluctuated and moved downward, the spot price in the market dropped slightly, the terminal purchase willingness was not strong, and the transaction situation was not satisfactory. As of June 25, the average daily turnover of sample trading companies this week was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 7,200 tons or 14.63% from last week.

【Forecast for next week】

Judging from the above situation, the national high-quality special steel market prices fell slightly this week. It is expected that the special steel market will fluctuate within a narrow range next week.