Weekly Summary: 2023 China Bearing Steel Market Trend in Second Week of July Down Slightly

Weekly Summary: 2023 China Bearing Steel Market Trend in Second Week of July Down Slightly

Overview: This week, the national high-quality special steel prices fell slightly. The off-season of the market is highlighted, and the actual demand is limited, which drives the market trading atmosphere. In terms of supply, the output of high-quality special steel tends to be stable; in terms of inventory, according to the investigation on Thursday, it is learned that the current factory warehouse has increased, and the social warehouse has decreased slightly, and the market operation is cautious. Details are as follows:

【Price review this week】

This week, the prices of mainstream special steel varieties fell slightly, of which 45# closed at 4058 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from last week; 40Cr closed at 4298 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from last week; 20CrMnTi closed at 4456 yuan/ton tons, down 23 yuan/ton from last week; CrMo closed at 5292 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from last week.

This week, Hangzhou, the main market for high-quality special steel in the country, closed at 3,980 yuan/ton, Shandong closed at 3,780 yuan/ton, and the price difference in leading cities was 200 yuan/ton.

From July 8th to July 14th, the price adjustments of major premium and special steel mills across the country are as follows: a total of 10 steel mills released price adjustment information in this period, and a total of 14 price adjustment information were released. The price adjustment of steel mills this week is mainly based on stability. Next week, we should continue to pay attention to the impact of consumer demand and steel mill maintenance.

【Summary of major markets】

Zhejiang market: The price of Zhejiang market fluctuated and consolidated this week. The current 45# carbon knot round steel Huaigang is 4010 yuan/ton, and Hangzhou Iron and Steel is 3980 yuan/ton, which is 50-60 yuan/ton lower than last week.

Jiangsu market: The price of Jiangsu excellent special steel fluctuated and fell. Now 45# Huaigang is 4010 yuan/ton, Dongfang 3960 yuan/ton; gear Laigang 4320 yuan/ton, chrome molybdenum Laigang 5100 yuan/ton. In terms of steel mills, the total bar inventory of Jiangsu Youte Steel Plant was 450,800 tons, an increase of 19,300 tons from last week, a month-on-month increase of 4.47%, a decrease of 64,200 tons from the same period last year, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.47%.

Shandong market: The price of Shandong excellent special steel market is basically stable this week. The direct price of 45# steel mills: steel investment 3810 yuan / ton, Luli 3780 yuan / ton, Fulun 3800 yuan / ton, Xiwang stick 4200 yuan / ton, Weigang 3940 yuan / ton, Juneng 3940 yuan / ton, Laiwu Steel Special Steel Laiwu market 20CrMnTi4380 yuan / ton.

Chongqing market: This week, the market price of Chongqing excellent special steel is temporarily stable compared with last week. The current market price is 45#4100 yuan/ton, Xining special steel 45#4150 yuan/ton, 40Cr4350 yuan/ton, 20CrMnT4500 yuan/ton, CrMo5450 yuan/ton Ton, Hunan Iron and Steel 45#4130 yuan/ton, 40Cr4330 yuan/ton, 20CrMnTi4500 yuan/ton, CrMo5450 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory, the total stock of bars in the Chongqing market was 82,800 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week.

South China market: This week, the market price of high-quality special steel in South China dropped by 40 yuan/ton compared with last week. At present, in the Guangdong market, 45# Hunan Iron and Steel 3920/ton, Shaoxing Iron and Steel 3920 yuan/ton, Xinxing cast pipe 3890 yuan/ton, and 40Cr Hunan Iron and Steel 4120 yuan/ton in the Guangdong market.

Central China market: This week, the market price of high-quality special steel in Central China fell slightly compared with last week. The current market price of Zhengzhou 45# Jinan Steel is 4290 yuan/ton, which is stable compared with last week; Changsha 45# Hunan Iron and Steel is 4030 yuan/ton, which is 10 yuan/ton lower than last week; Wuhan 45# Xianggang is 3970 yuan/ton, The price dropped by 10 yuan/ton compared with last week.

Northeast market: This week, the market price of premium special steel in Northeast China remained stable compared with last Friday. The current market price in Shenyang is 45# Benxi Iron and Steel 3910 yuan/ton (national standard), Lingyuan Iron and Steel 3960 yuan/ton, Tongyuan Iron and Steel 3960 yuan/ton, Jianlong Beiman 3960 yuan/ton, 40Cr Linggang 4190 yuan/ton, 20CrMnTi Benxi Iron and Steel 4920 yuan/ton, CrMo Benxi Iron and Steel 5320 yuan/ton.

North China market: This week, the market price of high-quality special steel in North China is generally stable compared with last week. The current market price in Tianjin is 4060 yuan/ton for 45# Linggang, 4040 yuan/ton for Benxi Iron and Steel, 4040 yuan/ton for Jianlong, and 3850 yuan/ton for Tiangang (market price for Rongcheng Steel Plant is 4060 yuan/ton).

This week, the market price of high-quality steel in Handan remained stable. At present, 45# Shagang Plant will deliver 3,890 yuan/ton to 3,940 yuan/ton; Xinxing cast pipe warehouse will deliver 3,870 yuan/ton to 3,920 yuan/ton; Changgang will directly send 3,790 yuan/ton/warehouse to 3,860 yuan/ton .

【Inventory Performance】

As of July 13, the total inventory of national high-quality special steel bar samples was 1.9066 million tons, a decrease of 108,500 tons or 5.39% compared with the same period last week. The month-on-month decrease was 71,300 tons, and the year-on-year decrease was 466,100 tons.

【Supply side】

In terms of supply, our statistics on the production survey data of national excellent special steel factories show that in May, the national output of excellent special steel bars (34 samples) was 3.11 million tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous month, and an increase of 42,000 tons from the same period last year; The output was 3.197 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 87,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 88,000 tons; in May, the national output of high-quality special steel bars (46 samples) was 3.813 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 65,000 tons; June is expected to The output was 3.931 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 118,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 154,000 tons.

【Demand side】

This week, there is no obvious improvement in the demand of the national high-quality special steel market, and the transaction is average. In this cycle, snails fluctuate within a narrow range, and the market spot price does not fluctuate significantly. As of July 14, the average daily turnover of sample trading companies this week was 50,300 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons or 2% from last week.

【Forecast for next week】

Based on the above situation, the national high-quality special steel market prices fell slightly this week. With the traditional off-season of high temperature and rain, the market is mostly cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and the short-term upside is limited. It is expected that the premium special steel market will stabilize and weaken next week.