The gear industry navigates uncertainty, finds pockets of strength, and bets on automation

The Forces at Work
Of the 137 respondents to our annual gear-industry survey, the message was clear: tariffs are the defining challenge of 2026. But the frustration runs deeper than the duties themselves. Manufacturers can absorb cost increases; they can’t absorb chaos. When rules shift weekly and exemptions evaporate overnight, planning becomes guesswork. One respondent captured the exhaustion: “In 2025, they were all over the place, without warning, up and down. Terribly disorganized.”

Yet within this turbulence, distinct currents run strong. Defense and aerospace work has surged. Oil and gas, buoyed by loosened regulations, is “very active” according to multiple respondents, with mobile power units and gas compression driving demand. Overhaul and repair business is booming—when new equipment becomes expensive or hard to source, companies keep existing machines running longer, and that means gears.

The electric vehicle transition continues reshaping the landscape, though not uniformly. EVs require fewer gears than internal combustion drivetrains, pressuring some manufacturers while others pivot toward the precision demands of EV gear systems—quieter operation, tighter tolerances, micro-geometry that would have seemed exotic a decade ago. One respondent noted customers now demand “noiseless gears,” a specification that ripples back through design, cutting, and finishing operations.

The skilled labor shortage has calcified into a permanent condition. Respondents don’t speak of it as a problem to solve but as terrain to navigate. Experienced machinists retire; replacements are scarce and take years to develop. “Old time mentality,” one respondent observed, warning that without change, “no young people will be attracted to the industry when given a choice otherwise.”