The Electrification Question

The EV narrative has splintered along regional lines. In China, electrification for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles has reached what Klingelnberg describes as “maturity”—still growing, but at a sustainable pace rather than the frenetic expansion of recent years.

North America tells a different story. Nidec reports that “the full-EV rush has largely disappeared,” with hybrids taking the lead as the practical choice for anyone outside major cities. GMTA sees “a reversal narrative.” Helios notes that EV programs continue but timelines have stretched.

Perhaps more consequential than the policy shifts: the capacity question. Hollingsworth notes that electrification drove “many new projects post-COVID,” but warns that “the volumes are not materializing as expected.” Plants built for an EV surge that hasn’t arrived may stall further capacity investment—or see resources reallocated entirely.

Europe occupies a middle ground—electrification proceeding, but on “slow burn,” as Klingelnberg characterizes it.

For gear manufacturers, the message is clear: flexibility matters more than ever. The companies that bet everything on EV gearing may find themselves exposed; those maintaining capability across propulsion types are better positioned for however the market evolves. Micro-mobility presents its own opportunity—Klingelnberg expects that market to double by 2030, driven primarily by Europe and Asia.