China Purchasing Managers Index Returns to Expansion Zone in 2026 March

China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Returns to Expansion Territory in March

—Interpretation of the March 2026 China Purchasing Managers' Index by Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics

On March 31, 2026, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation.

In March, the Manufacturing PMI, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index, and the Composite PMI Output Index all returned to expansion territory, reaching 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5% respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in my country's economic activity.

I. Manufacturing PMI Returns to Expansion Territory

In March, as enterprises accelerated their resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, market activity increased, and the Manufacturing PMI reached 50.4%, returning to expansion territory.

(I) Simultaneous Expansion of Both Production and Demand. The production index and new orders index were 51.4% and 51.6% respectively, up 1.8 and 3.0 percentage points from the previous month, both rising into the expansion range, indicating accelerated production activity in manufacturing enterprises and a significant improvement in market demand. By industry, the production and new orders indices for agricultural and sideline food processing, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing were both above 55.0%, indicating rapid release of production and demand in these sectors. The indices for textiles, apparel, chemical fibers, and rubber and plastic products remained below the critical point, indicating weak market activity. Driven by the recovery in production and demand, enterprises' willingness to purchase increased, with the purchasing volume index reaching 50.9%, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous month.

(II) PMIs for large, medium, and small enterprises all rebounded. The PMI for large enterprises was 51.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a steady improvement in the business climate. The PMIs for medium and small enterprises were 49.0% and 49.3% respectively, up 1.5 and 4.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the business climate.

(III) Rapid Expansion in Three Key Industries. The PMI for high-tech manufacturing was 52.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point for 14 consecutive months, indicating a continued positive trend in industry development. The PMIs for equipment manufacturing and consumer goods were 51.5% and 50.8% respectively, up 1.7 and 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, both entering the expansionary range. The PMI for high-energy-consuming industries was 48.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in business activity.

(IV) Significant Rebound in Price Indices. Affected by the recent continuous rise in prices of some bulk commodities and accelerated corporate procurement activities, the main raw material purchase price index and ex-factory price index were 63.9% and 55.4% respectively, up 9.1 and 4.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant rebound in the overall market price level of the manufacturing sector. By industry, both price indices for petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, and chemical raw materials and chemical products were above 70.0%, indicating a significant increase in the overall purchase and sales prices of related industries.

(V) Steady Rising Market Expectations. The production and operation activity expectation index was 53.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that manufacturing enterprises have strengthened their confidence in recent market developments. By industry, the production and operation activity expectation indices for specialized equipment, automobiles, and railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment were above 56.0%, indicating a relatively high level of prosperity, with related enterprises being more optimistic about future industry developments.

The survey results also show that, affected by factors such as the current geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the prices of raw materials such as oil and chemicals have risen sharply, coupled with increased logistics costs. This month, the proportion of enterprises reporting high raw material costs and high logistics costs both increased compared to the previous month.

II. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Rebounds

In March, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector's economic climate.

(I) Service Sector Business Activity Index Rises Above the Critical Point. The service sector business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. From an industry perspective, the business activity indices for railway transportation, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and insurance were all above 55.0%, indicating a relatively high level of prosperity and rapid growth in business volume. However, the business activity indices for retail, accommodation, and catering—sectors related to consumer travel after the Spring Festival—were below the critical point, indicating a slight decrease in market activity. In terms of market expectations, the service sector business activity expectation index was 54.8%, continuing at a relatively high level, indicating that service sector enterprises remain optimistic about recent market developments.

(II) Improved Business Activity Index in the Construction Industry. As construction projects gradually resumed after the Spring Festival, the construction industry business activity index was 49.3%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of market expectations, the construction industry business activity expectation index was 50.5%, above the critical point, indicating that construction enterprises maintain confidence in the future development of the industry.

III. Composite PMI Output Index Rises Above the Critical Point

In March, the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation of Chinese enterprises is improving. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 51.4% and 50.1%, respectively.